WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued July 12 forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2022, at 1.432 billion bushels, up 75 million bushels from the June outlook and up 350 million bushels, or 32%, from 1.082 billion bushels as the projection for 2021.
Standing out in the 2021-22 corn supply-and-demand forecasts was a 175-million-bu hike in projected corn production in 2021 to a record 15.165 billion bushels based on a 1-million-acre increase in the estimated harvested area to 84.5 million acres as reported in the annual Acreage report issued June 30 and a trendline yield at 179.5 bushels per acre. The production forecast was up 983 million bushels, or 7%, from the 2020 outturn at 14.182 billion bushels.
The total 2021-22 corn supply was forecast at 16.272 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from the June projection as the higher production forecast was partly offset by a 25-million-bu reduction in the forecast carry-in supply to 1.082 billion bushels.
Domestic disappearance in 2021-22 was forecast at 12.340 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from June as the feed and residual use projection was raised to 5.725 billion bushels, equal to the projected usage for 2020-21.
Food, seed and industrial use of corn in 2021-22 was projected at 6.615 billion bushels, unchanged from June but up 145 million bushels from 2020-21. Included in the food, seed and industrial use category was a forecast 5.200 billion bushels for use in manufacturing ethanol and byproducts compared with 5.050 billion bushels in 2020-21.
Corn exports in 2021-22 were projected at 2.500 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from the June outlook but down 350 million bushels from a record 2.850 billion bushels in 2020-21.
There were no adjustments from June in 2021-22 supply-and-demand forecasts for soybeans. The projected carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2022, was 155 million, up 20 million bushels from the forecast for the current year at 135 million bushels.
The carry-in supply forecast for 2021-22 remained 135 million bushels, and as there were no changes in the forecast harvested area and yields from the previous report, the production forecast held at 4.405 billion bushels, up 270 million bushels from 4.135 billion bushels in 2020. It would be the third-largest soybean crop after a record 4.428 billion bushels in 2018 and 4.412 billion bushels in 2017.
The total soybean supply in 2021-22 was projected at 4.575 billion bushels, down 105 million bushels from 2020-21.
The soybean crush in 2021-22 was forecast at 2.225 billion bushels, up 55 million bushels from 2020-21.
Seed use of soybeans in 2021-22 was projected at 104 million bushels versus 102 million bushels in 2020-21.
Soybean exports in 2021-22 were forecast at 2.075 billion bushels compared with a record 2.270 billion bushels in 2020-21.
Total disappearance of soybeans in 2021-22 was projected at 4.420 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels from 4.545 billion bushels in 2020-21.