WASHINGTON – The US Dept. of Agriculture in its July 12 Crop Production report forecast the carryover of US soybeans on Sept. 1, 2019, at 580 million bushels, up 195 million bushels, or 51 percent, from 385 million bushels forecast in June and up 115 million bushels, or 25 percent, from 465 million bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2018.
Projected 2018-19 soybean exports were 2,040 million bushels, down 250 million bushels, or 11 percent, from 2,290 million bushels as the June forecast and down 45 million bushels, or 2.2 percent, from 2,085 million bushels forecast for 2017-18. US soybean exports for 2017-18 were raised 20 million bushels from the June forecast.
The sharp drop in forecast exports for 2018-19 more than offset slightly lower total supply and a 45-million-bushel increase from June in soybean crush, forecast at a record 2,045 million bushels next year.
The average price of soybeans paid to farmers in 2018-19 was forecast to range between $8 and $10.50 per bushel, down 75 cents from the June forecast and compared with $9.35 per bushel forecast for the current year.
“Soybean and product trade changes reflect the impact of China’s recently imposed soybean import duties in addition to other global oilseed supply and demand changes this month,” the USDA said in comments accompanying the WASDE data. “Soybean exports are reduced 250 million bushels to 2.040 billion reflecting the impact of China’s import duties. Despite losing market share to China, soybean exports are supported in other markets as lower US prices increase demand and market share.”
The USDA forecast the carryover of US corn on Sept. 1, 2019, at 1,552 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from the June forecast and down 475 million bushels, or 23 percent, from 2,027 million bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2018. The decrease from June resulted from higher 2018 corn production, forecast at 14,230 million bushels, and lower food, seed and industrial use being more than offset by lower beginning stocks, increased feed and residual use and higher exports, with the latter forecast at 2,225 million bushels in 2018-19, up 125 million bushels from June but down 175 million bushels from 2,400 million bushels forecast in the current year.
The USDA forecasts for 2018-19 carryover were well below the trade average for corn and well above for soybeans.
After the reports, corn futures traded modestly higher while soy complex futures were down slightly.