WASHINGTON – The US Dept. of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released its Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook for August. The agency showed that pork imports had slowed while more cattle continued to come up during the first part of 2019.
According to the forecast, Q3 pork production will be at 6.8 billion lbs. or 7 percent greater than a year ago. Year-end pork cold stock estimates were moved higher for both 2019 and 2020 with rising monthly stock for some pork cuts. Third-quarter exports are expected to increase more than 19 percent over a year ago.
August beef production side forecasts were lowered 86 million lbs. from last month to 27 billion lbs. which was based primarily on lighter expected carcass weight the rest of the year and a slower pace of fed cattle slaughter in the third quarter. 2020 beef production forecasts were raised by 145 million lbs. from last month to 27.6 billion lbs. This is based on an expected quicker pace of fed cattle slaughter in the first half of next year, which is expected to offset the slower anticipated pace of fed cattle slaughter in late 2020.
Increased broiler production forecasts in 2019 and 2020 was based on gains in average bird weights. However, the benchmark price will be revised down. Broiler imports are revised down with expectations for less shipments from key suppliers. The egg stock forecast was changed on increasing dried egg inventories, and the export forecast was revised up on increasing shell egg shipments.
The 2019 turkey production forecast increased by 20 million lbs. to 5.886 billion lbs. which is less than 0.5 percent above 2018. Turkey production forecasts for 2020 was raised to 5.930 billion lbs., less than 1 percent higher than 2019.
Visit the ERS website for the full August report.