WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report left unchanged from February its US corn and soybean 2020-21 supply-and-demand projections. In each case, the trade had expected the USDA to lower ending stocks, at least minimally.
The USDA projected the US carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2021, at 1,502 million bus, which would be down 417 million bus, or 22%, from 1,919 million bus in 2020. The average of pre-report trade estimates was 1,471 million bus. If the USDA forecast is realized, the 2021 corn carryover would be the smallest since 1,232 million bus in 2014.
The 2020-21 corn supply was projected at 16,127 million bus, up 244 million bus, or 2%, from 15,883 million bus in 2019-20.
Domestic corn use in 2020-21 was forecast at 12,025 million bus (5,650 million tonnes for feed and residual; 4,950 million bus for ethanol, and 1,425 million bus for other food, seed and industrial use), down 160 million bus, or 1%, from 12,185 million bus in 2019-20.
The average farm price of corn in 2020-21 was forecast at $4.30 a bu, unchanged from February and up 74¢, or 21%, from $3.56 a bu in 2019-20.
The USDA forecast the US carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2021, at 120 million bus. The average of pre-report trade estimates was 117 million bus. If the USDA projection is realized, the 2021 soybean carryover would be the smallest since 92 million bus in 2014 and compared with 474 million bus as the recent five-year average carryover.
The soybean crush for 2020-21 was forecast unchanged at a record 2,200 million bus, and soybean exports in 2020-21 were projected unchanged at a record 2,250 million bus.
The average farm price of soybeans in 2020-21 was forecast unchanged at $11.15 a bu, up $2.58 a bu, or 30%, from $8.57 a bu in 2019-20.
The USDA said in relation to the farm price of soybeans, “Although current cash prices are significantly higher, prices received through January have averaged just over $10 per bu, reflecting forward pricing at lower levels.”