WEST LAFAYETTE, IND. — With concerns about future agricultural exports increasing, US farmer sentiment weakened in June, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The monthly barometer survey, which was released July 1, dropped 12 points to 146 from the previous month. The Index of Future Expectations sank 18 points in June, while the Current Conditions Index lost only 2 points. Even with the June declines, all three indices persist at higher levels than a year ago, the report noted.

“Overall, we see weakened agricultural producer sentiment coupled with their weakened expectations for the future,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Reduced optimism about the future of US agriculture’s export prospects stands out as a major cause of the shift in sentiment. Although farmers remain concerned that US tariff policies will reduce their income, fewer producers in May and June said they expect a negative or very negative impact on their income than they did in March and April.”

Source: ©PURDUE UNIVERSITY | CME GROUP

From May to June, the percentage of producers who said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years dropped to 41% from 52%. By contrast, the percentage of respondents who expect declining exports rose 4 points to 16%. The June reading was more negative than in May but still notably more optimistic than in March when 30% of those surveyed said they expected exports to decline in the future.

The June survey again asked producers for their perspective on if “free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.”

 Similar to the May survey results, only 31% of farmers in June said they strongly agreed with the statement. This stands in contrast to responses received to this question in fall 2020. When asked this question five years ago, 49% of respondents said they strongly agreed that free trade was beneficial.

The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 5 points to 104, with producers projecting a slightly weaker financial outlook for their farms in June than in May.

An index above 100 indicates that US farmers expect a stronger financial performance in 2025 than in 2024. The index has ranged from 101 to 111 since January. Helping to support this outlook are strong income prospects for the livestock sector, especially for beef producers.

The Farm Capital Investment Index, meanwhile, rose 5 points from May to 60, nearly matching April’s reading of 61. The investment index increased as the percentage of farmers who said it is a good time to invest reached 24%, up from 19% in May.