UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — While the global poultry industry has seen a relatively strong start to the year, RaboResearch warned of several ongoing factors that add to uncertainty in the market.

In its Global Poultry Quarterly report for the third quarter of 2025, RaboResearch noted rising animal protein prices combined with lower feed costs have helped sustain the poultry industry. Most regions have seen a balance of supply and demand due to supply growth discipline, the impact of avian flu outbreaks and tight global parent stock supply, according to the report.

Latin American countries, the United States, Europe, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Egypt have seen strong industry returns, while conditions in South Africa and Japan are improving. The weakest-performing countries are currently in Asia, especially as China, Indonesia, and India have been challenged by oversupply and lower prices.

In the first quarter, global poultry trade reached historic highs.

The base case fundamentals are expected to stay strong throughout 2025, RaboResearch said. However, the full outlook will depend heavily on the US import tariffs situation and the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which appears to be shifting focus to the Southern Hemisphere.

As these challenges affect poultry market stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by 0.5%.

“We have adjusted our global production forecast for 2025 from 2.5%-3% growth to 2%-2.5% growth, with potential further reductions if the conflict escalates,” explained Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst of animal protein at RaboResearch. “While global markets are expected to remain resilient, regional variations are likely, influenced by geopolitical events, their economic repercussions and the evolving bird flu situation.”

During April, the United States opened the door to a potential trade war with the imposition and subsequent postponement of import tariffs. If trade agreements are reached, the US poultry sector could expand its market access, potentially disadvantaging local producers or competing exporters, according to RaboResearch. Conversely, a prolonged trade war could restrict US access, which would benefit other exporters like Brazil, Thailand, Russia and the European Union.

Furthermore, the development of the Israel-Iran war could affect global economic growth and the chicken industry.

The Middle East is a significant market for poultry imports, so an escalation of the conflict could impact global trade. Brazil, and to a lesser extent the United States, Turkey and Ukraine, are major exporters to the Middle East.

Meanwhile, HPAI outbreaks have been ongoing for years now with no indication of letting up.

“The Brazilian bird flu outbreak in May has significantly affected global trade, with 40% of Brazilian exports blocked by major importers,” Mulder said. “The hatching egg trade is also severely impacted by outbreaks in Europe, Brazil, the US and previously in New Zealand. We expect supply to remain tight, posing challenges for countries reliant on imported hatching eggs, particularly in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.”