UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — Uncertainty and unpredictability have reverberated throughout global markets since the new US administration took office in January. The global cattle market is no exception. With beef as one of the United States’ largest agricultural commodities, any change to US trading arrangements has the potential to affect the beef market at a national and global level.

According to RaboResearch’s latest quarterly beef report, global cattle markets have been trending higher in the first half of 2025. Based on the current supply and demand conditions, RaboResearch expects trade flows to be maintained. However, if the United States and major trading partners like Europe and China enter a trade war, then that could change.

In the first quarter, European cattle prices experienced an exceptionally strong rise as domestic supply contracted, while demand remained robust.

“The rise in European prices now puts them in line with the strong North American cattle prices, which continue to rise slowly,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst of animal protein for RaboResearch. “In both Europe and the US, disease and pests are affecting cattle supplies. In Europe, and now in the UK, bluetongue continues to affect the herd. Meanwhile, New World screwworm in Mexico has caused US authorities to close the border to Mexican cattle imports, and the risk of potential infestation in the US is increasing.”

Current animal health threats are challenging production in markets where cattle supplies are already historically low, likely further supporting elevated cattle prices, explained RaboResearch. The United States and Mexico are working together daily to develop tactics and tools to effectively eradicate New World screwworm.

Global beef production is expected to contract through the remainder of the year, with an overall drop of 2% in 2025.

Brazil will likely see the largest contraction, down an estimated 5%, while New Zealand is estimated close behind with a 4% contraction. Europe, the United States and China are also anticipating contractions. Australia is one of the few regions expected to see a production increase.

Trade talks

On April 5, tariffs were introduced for many countries exporting beef into the United States. Additional reciprocal tariffs for certain countries are currently on hold until early July.

Meanwhile, the US-China tariff escalation has been paused until early August although China still has a 20% tariff in place. On top of tariffs, China has yet to renew registrations for US beef exporting plants.

As negotiations are ongoing, beef trade volumes are beginning to get redistributed around the world. RaboResearch said reports are emerging that Chinese buyers are looking more toward Australia, New Zealand and South America as beef suppliers.

“Much of the media attention has been on the imposition of tariffs, but this may only be the opener to the main event,” Gidley-Baird said. “In just a few months, countries have entered trade talks with 30-day time frames. The result has been more trade agreements than we’ve seen in decades. While tariffs may have grabbed headlines and caused headaches, the real story will be the implications of shifting global trade dynamics.”

The full extent of the trade war is still unfolding, but RaboResearch looks at the beef market with cautious optimism.

“Beef isn’t being singled out as a targeted commodity, and most major exporters are only facing baseline tariffs,” Gidley-Baird explained. “So early indications suggest that competitive positions will be maintained, albeit with added costs to the system. The global supply and demand situation should maintain current trade flows. But if the US-China tariff war escalates and Europe becomes more involved, this is likely to change.”