UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — As tensions between the United States and China have escalated, the pork industry has experienced a reshuffling in global trade flows. Other suppliers, particularly the European Union and Latin America, have seized the opportunity to gain market share, according to a recent quarterly pork report from RaboResearch.

Despite the shifting trade flows and other economic and consumer uncertainties, pork prices have rebounded, driven by tighter hog supplies. With ongoing health and productivity challenges, sow herd growth has been limited. RaboResearch also pointed out the slow production response reflects market uncertainty from weaker economic growth prospects.

“We expect limited demand improvement for the rest of the year,” said Christine McCracken, senior analyst of animal protein for RaboResearch. “High beef and poultry prices, along with the expected shift in consumer spending from foodservice to retail (where pork tends to perform better) may offer support.”

So far, rising geopolitical tensions have had a limited impact on global pork markets, RaboResearch said, but they are likely to redirect global trade volumes in the coming months.

While the United States and China recently reached an agreement to reduce tariffs substantially for 90 days, the added tariffs on US pork could still curtail trade.

“For China’s swine sector, this development is likely to be price supportive, while alternative suppliers like the EU, Chile and Brazil may also benefit,” McCracken said.

Chinese importers that previously relied on US pork are likely to face margin pressure. Meanwhile, US pork importers are predicted to see weaker offal values. With China as the primary market, few secondary markets are available, which could lead to an annual loss of millions for US export revenue.

“Given the uncertainty surrounding future US trade policy, investment in US pork sector expansion is expected to slow, while other regions may see slightly faster growth,” McCracken said.

Trade tensions could also affect feedstocks — in particular, soymeal. Slower US oilseed exports could lower feed costs for US hog producers, partially offsetting export losses.

South America expects a hearty harvest this year, as the Northern Hemisphere makes progress in corn and oilseeds planting, all of which will provide tailwinds for feed costs.

However, several geopolitical disruptions will continue to impact global grain and oilseed trade. Factors include US dollar volatility, the ongoing US-China trade war and signs of a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Larger grain supplies and rising stock levels should help keep feed costs manageable, RaboResearch noted.

“Our base case scenario for commodity prices suggests relatively flat feed costs for the remainder of 2025,” McCracken said. “However, geopolitical developments and weather-related uncertainties remain key risks.”

Production constraints are being furthered by herd health challenges in key regions. In some cases, the presence of an animal disease is even dampening demand, noted RaboResearch.

Largely impacting pork was the resurgence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the European Union in the first quarter of 2025. The FMD outbreak was the first in decades. New cases have also surfaced in South Korea.

Officials sought to control the disease outbreak through containment zones, increased surveillance and imposed transport restrictions. Such mitigation measures are gradually being lifted due to the absence of additional outbreaks.

Furthermore, across different regions in Asia and Europe, producers are battling African swine fever (ASF). The ASF outbreak has led to ongoing production losses and trade disruptions as the countries work to limit the spread of wild boar populations.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is another health concern for the swine industry, negatively impacting production in parts of North America and Europe. However, earlier this month, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a PRR-resistant pig for use in the US food supply chain.