ST. LOUIS — Consumers in 2025 will increase their alcohol consumption, stockpile groceries and reduce their away-from-home breakfast purchases due to external economic stressors like inflation and tariffs, said Suzy Badaracco, president at market research firm Culinary Tides.

At the recent Research Chefs Association conference in St. Louis, Badaracco said she sees a potential drop in sales in breakfast away from home.

“If breakfast away from home slows, that is a key recession indicator because it’s cheaper to eat cereal at home,” she said, adding that “snacking is going to continue to go up for two reasons: I am stressed out, or I can’t afford a meal. Vegetarian and plant-forward (meals) will go up. They do not go up during this time period because we’re trying to save the planet, they go up because it’s cheaper to eat this way. If we all start making money again, they go back down.”

On the topic of sustainability, Badaracco said if a company can produce eco-friendly elements in their products at no extra cost to the consumer in 2025, they likely will respond.

“If you have products that have something sustainable about them, like the packaging or sourcing, and it didn’t add cost to the product, or maybe the product has been on the market, and you just never really boasted about it … I would start bragging about it immediately because what they (consumers) really want are no-cost, sustainable solutions,” she said. “They’re partaking in sustainability, but they’re not spending more.”

Stockpiling groceries and other items — like what happened during the pandemic — is another consumer behavior Badaracco sees rising in 2025.

“It has already started,” she said. “We already have research on stockpiling, just like with COVID, but the new term for stockpiling is doom spending. What consumers are doing is, if they’re (buying) something, they have this fear because of tariffs, etc., that they’re not going to be able to get it, so they buy seven of them — it’s really a reaction to government right now.”

Badaracco said the pandemic adjusted everyone to a higher fear point for external stressors, so certain trends remain despite today’s economic worries.

“We’re not as shook now as we (would have been) before the pandemic,” she said. “We are stressed out, but we are not panicked … risk-taking is tempered but remains strong. We want to try new things, so exploration and experimentation remain strong. That’s why travel is still up when it shouldn’t be. Global flavors are still up when they shouldn’t be. It’s because of this reset from COVID.”

Coinciding with global flavors trending up is a projected decline in traditional comfort food, which is often a go-to for consumers during turbulent times.

“Don’t go to comfort food,” Badaracco said. “That’s not what (consumers) want. That’s not anything that behavioral research or survey work is calling for.”

She added that consumers are looking to new flavors as an escape from stress, where in the past, they may have eaten something like macaroni and cheese.

“(Consumers) are looking at (new flavors) as a reward and escape,” she said. “I get to escape the kids for five minutes. I get to eat at the office because I have this delicious little snack bar I have not tried before. Psychologically, the behavior is very different than it was before the pandemic ever hit. That’s why right now we’re not seeing any strong signs of going to comfort foods.”

Badaracco said restaurant traffic will remain slow, as another after-effect of the pandemic, reinforced by today’s economic concerns.

“QSR (quick-service restaurant) prices jumped so much because of COVID and never came down,” she said. “Consumers are abandoning them, going to convenience stores, grocery and foodservice, who are very much upping their game — traffic is going up there. Retail and private label (sales are up) because cooking at home is going up.”

Badaracco concluded that the reason certain trends can shift in a short period of time is because trends focus on what consumers are responding to now, rather than how external factors can alter their behavior and spending habits throughout the year.  

“When you look at surveys, remember that consumers can only tell you what they did yesterday,” she said. “Consumers cannot tell you where they’re going to be in 18 months. We’re looking at behavioral research, we’re not just looking at surveys and sales. If you’re just looking at surveys and sales, you’ve completely missed the trend, and you have no idea where it’s going or how long it’s going to last.”