KANSAS CITY, MO. — US beverage sales to Canada and beef and sorghum sales to China could be among the hardest hit by retaliatory tariffs floated so far, according to a new report by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

In early February, the White House imposed a 25% tariff on all Canadian products (excluding energy) that currently is paused until April, and the White House also placed a range of new tariffs on Chinese products. Canada responded with a 25% tariff of its own targeting $21 billion of US products and has said it is planning a second round of tariffs on an additional $87 billion worth of US goods. China has announced a raft of countermeasures including an extra 15% tariff on US wheat, corn, chicken and cotton and an additional 10% on US sorghum, soybeans, beef, pork, dairy, fruits and vegetables.

“Tariffs can be a double-whammy for farmers,” Betty Resnick, an AFBF economist, wrote in the March 18 report. “With over 20% of US agricultural goods exported, retaliatory tariffs can pose a major threat to farmers’ ability to turn a profit.”

Among agricultural product categories, the US beverage industry is most exposed to retaliatory tariffs floated by Canada so far, according to Canadian trade statistics. Last year, nonalcoholic beverages excluding coffee and juice were the leading US food exports to Canada, accounting for $494 million in value, AFBF found. Next on the list was coffee ($493 million), followed by chocolate and cocoa products ($469 million) and then wine ($425 million). Condiments and sauces ($405 million) and confectionery products ($369 million) also ranked high on the list. US bakery goods, including cereals and pastas, accounted for $285 million. Dairy products were $212 million, and poultry products, excluding eggs, were $211 million.

In terms of trade with China, US soybeans were far and away the largest agricultural export category by value in 2024, accounting for $12.8 billion. Second were beef and beef products ($1.6 billion), followed by cotton ($1.5 billion) and grain sorghum ($1.3 billion), according to AFBF calculations based on US Department of Agriculture data. Pork and pork products, worth $1 billion, wheat, worth $482 million, and poultry products excluding eggs, worth $478 million, also ranked high. US corn exports to China last year had a total value of $331 million, and dairy products were valued at $253 million.

“Tariffs (and subsequent increased consumer prices) will certainly decrease demand for US products in our second- and third-largest agricultural export markets,” Resnick wrote. “Farmers do not get to set their own prices and are subject to the whims of these markets. All they can do is plant a good crop, tend to it, pray for good weather and hope to make a profit after harvest.”