BEIJING, CHINA — Agriculture likely will be targeted by China in retaliation to threatened new tariffs ordered by US President Donald Trump set to take effect March 4, Reuters reported, citing China’s Global Times, a government-backed newspaper.

Trump last week said an additional 10% tariff, resulting in a total 20% duty on all Chinese goods, would be implemented if China did not do more to halt the flow of fentanyl into the United States. 

According to the Global Times, China is planning retaliatory measures that could include tariff and non-tariff measures on US agricultural and food products. China is the biggest market for US agricultural products.

On March 3, Trump wrote on Truth Social that it is his intention to start tariffs on agricultural products next month.

“To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social network, on Monday. “Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”

Trump previously stated that he would impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico along with another 10% tariff on China starting March 4.

China’s most active soymeal and rapeseed meal futures, already bolstered by a supply shortage, each surged 2.5% after the Global Times report. The soymeal contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange hit its highest since Sept. 30.

With 1.4 billion people, China is the world’s top agricultural importer and second-largest economy and brought in $29.25 billion worth of US agriculture products in 2024, a 14% drop from a year earlier, extending a 20% decline seen in 2023. China has been building food and agriculture self-sufficiency as it attempts to reduce its dependence on exports.

Additionally, China is expecting record grain production and declining imports for marketing year 2024-25, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. 

The FAS projected China’s grain output to reach 706.5 million tonnes, a 1.6% increase over the previous year driven by expanded acreage and higher yields. All three major grains — corn, wheat and rice — are expected to achieve production increases, the FAS said. Corn imports overall are expected to fall 40%.

Soybean production in China is expected to remain steady at 19.6 million tonnes, according to the FAS. China is the world’s largest soybean importer, and the United States accounts for about a quarter of China’s imports, while Brazil has seen its market share climb to about 70%.