UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — Pork producers around the globe remain cautious with their expansion strategies; however, the industry’s 2025 outlook appears promising, according to a global pork quarterly report from RaboResearch. The year ahead shows signs of stabilizing profitability and improved demand.

While 2024 reaped producer profits, herd expansion is progressing slowly, with slight production increases in China, Brazil and Mexico. Decreases are occurring in the European Union and the United States.

Chenjun Pan, senior analyst of animal protein at RaboResearch, predicted favorable production conditions in the near future, and the pork supply to remain stable with anticipated growth of less than 1% this year. The steady supply will be supported by manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health. Of course, though, regional supply and demand balances will vary. Sufficient supply is predicted in the United States, China and Brazil, while the European Union, Japan and the Philippines will likely see tighter supply.

“Lower feed costs and enhanced productivity have made pork more competitive, a trend likely to continue in 2025,” Pan said. “Pork is well-positioned due to its reasonable pricing and availability, especially as beef prices remain high and poultry demand strong.”

Pork demand in North America and Brazil is expected to rise. Meanwhile, Europe may experience seasonal price increases. Asia may see price fluctuations across its regions, with downward pressure in China and South Korea, but strong prices in Japan and Southeast Asia.

As 2024 brought mixed global import trends, so it appears for 2025, especially with the anticipation of new tariff policies from the Trump administration.

“High tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada may lead to retaliatory measures affecting agricultural goods, including pork,” Pan explained.

Additional uncertainty rests in geopolitical factors like a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, which could affect grain prices and thus pork production costs. Disease outbreaks, such as the recent foot and mouth disease outbreak in Germany, further complicate the trade landscape, Pan noted.

Animal disease outbreaks, including African swine fever and porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv), continue to challenge pork production and exports. Disease mitigation is a common strategy across the supply chain, as governments and stakeholders invest in solutions like vaccination, biosecurity and animal health products.

At the same time, a need for improved sustainability and animal welfare is driving investments in technology, automation, digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI). Many large-scale farms are already using sensors for disease diagnosis and monitoring, the RaboResearch report pointed out.