UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — A recent update from RaboResearch displayed its World Poultry Map that detailed the trade flow of poultry and its major changes since 2018 due to slower market growth, more trade restrictions, higher volatility, and the emergence of new players.

Recent developments include Brazil emerging as a main poultry exporter by capturing 90% of global trade growth. Other countries that are seeing an additional market presence, according to RaboResearch, are Thailand, China, Ukraine, and Russia, which are looking to expand their market share with reductions in the United States and the European Union. The group expects a slow growth trajectory accompanied by persistent price volatility.  

During 2018 and 2023, the global poultry meat trade grew at a modest pace of 8% or 1 million tonnes, according to RaboResearch. Some of the factors mentioned for the trade conditions include the COVID-19 pandemic, avian influenza and African swine fever which all affected demand and trade. Much of a global economic slowdown also featured high costs and geopolitical tensions for the Ukraine war and trade frictions between Western countries and China.

Later in the report Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst of animal protein for RaboResearch, noted Brazil’s success in poultry due to cost-competitive advantages and strategic diversification of export markets.

Another contribution to the trends is that China, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the Philippines increased imports while other countries like Saudi Arabia and South Africa took time to develop their own food security strategies.

“Since 2020, the value of global poultry trade has increased by 20% to 25%, primarily due to higher prices, while trade volume growth has remained around 6%,” Mulder added. “The average poultry export price has risen from USD 1,400/metric ton in 2004 to USD 2,400/metric ton today.”

Other elements mentioned by Mulder include export price inflation, higher production costs, a shift toward processed poultry, volatile shipping costs, and Brexit influencing certain levels.

Under export value, Thailand leads the way, with China and Chile next due to market access and then the EU following Brexit.

Even while Brazil became the largest exporter it ranks in the middle of export value with the United States and Argentina going to the lower end.

RaboResearch put the global poultry trade value at $32 billion. Brazil currently leads with 30% of global trade by value, followed by the United States and EU at 16% each. The change of Brexit boosted the EU’s market share with the transformation of the EU-UK trade stream into a global flow, according to the group. Coming in fourth was Thailand, which had a 13% share of the market. Then, China, Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia completed the list of top exporters.

“We expect global poultry to grow slowly, at a rate of 1% to 2% annually over the next five years,” Mulder said. “This slow pace is driven by food security strategies in key growth markets like Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, which may challenge major exporters.”

Near the end of the update, RaboResearch highlighted that Brazil expects to further increase its market share with Thai and Chinese exports growing above market average.

Russia and Ukraine are expected expand market presence with the possibly Argentina gaining more of share as a major exports if economic conditions change. Some emerging players to look out for by RaboResearch was Paraguay, Vietman, Colombia and South Africa.