UTRECHT, NETHERLANDS — With many unknowns in store for 2025, such as economic uncertainty and geopolitics, the global animal protein outlook remains in flux. According to RaboResearch’s latest report, the global beef market is preparing for a period of contraction following a relatively steady year in 2024. Meanwhile, poultry will likely drive significant growth in the animal protein sector but is expected to be outpaced by seafood as the leading contributor to global protein supply growth.

2025 will be a pivotal time for production across various regions and commodities, RaboResearch said.

“Overall production is set to grow slightly faster than in 2024, driven by aquaculture, wild catch and poultry,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst of animal protein at RaboResearch. “Seafood and pork are expected to transition from contraction to growth, while beef will move from growth to contraction, reshaping market dynamics and supply chains.”

Over the next year, poultry is predicted to continue its steady growth, while beef production will decline due to contractions in major regions. Pork production is expected rise marginally (0.1% year-over-year), coming off significant growth from 2021 to 2023. Rebounding from a 0.3% decline in 2024, aquaculture and wild catch are projected to grow by 2.3% compared to last year, boosting it to its lead position in protein supply growth.

Livestock production is anticipated to decelerate in most regions, including Brazil, which is experiencing a 1% contraction. Brazil’s beef supply will decrease due to the retention of females, capping off a period of three consecutive years of growth. However, strong pork and poultry supplies combined with competitive price points will bring opportunities for the country in 2025.

China will see modest growth in pork production and a sufficient poultry supply. Beef production will decline, supporting a price rebound.

North America is also experiencing contraction in beef, but demand is expected to remain steady. Poultry production will increase, as will pork slightly.

Europe’s beef production will continue its structural decline, and pork is expected to contract as well due to smaller sow herds. Continuing the trend across most regions, poultry will keep up its strong momentum.

With African swine fever being a persistent challenge in Southeast Asia, pork production is recovering slowly. Balancing the market out, poultry is regaining profitability, with growth returning to historically high levels.

Counter to many other regions, Australia looks to maintain its high beef production. Lamb volumes will decrease after recently reporting record levels. New Zealand, however, will see declines in both beef and lamb.

Demand for animal protein remains in question as several changing factors come into play. RaboResearch said government policy changes and macroeconomics will shape demand and access to supply.

With new governments stepping into office, anticipated policy shifts could affect trade, such as the introduction of protectionist measures that would lead to tariffs and higher trade costs. The United States, for one, recently entered a new era of administration with the inauguration of President Donald Trump on Jan. 20. While Trump did not impose tariffs on trade partners on the first day of presidency, he did issue an order calling for a review of US trade relationships with Canada, China and Mexico. Future actions are still uncertain.

RaboResearch noted that military conflicts could further disrupt shipping and freight, impacting global trade and increasing market volatility.

Although inflationary pressures have been high and the global economy continues to strive for recovery, policy decisions could reverse this trend, potentially weakening consumer demand if incomes tighten.

Sustainability is another focus of the animal protein sector. RaboResearch said legislative action and nature-related pressures could pose significant risks for the markets. Companies are encouraged to prepare for data collection as reporting guidelines evolve for climate claims.

A never-ending challenge, producers continue to be impacted by animal diseases. Although vaccines, genetics and technology like artificial intelligence aren’t new, RaboResearch expects the industry to increasingly turn to these solutions for mitigation.