WASHINGTON — The US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) in its Oct. 10 Crop Production report forecast 2019 US production of corn at 13,779 million bus, down 19,816,000 bus, or 0.1 percent, from the September forecast and down 640,766,000 bus, or 4.4 percent, from 2018. Soybean production was forecast at 3,550 million bus, down 82,370,000 bus, or 2.3 percent, from September and down 877,869,000 bus, or 20 percent, from 2018, which was revised down to 4,428 million bus.
Average corn yield, based on Oct. 1 conditions, was forecast at 168.4 bus an acre, up 0.2 bu from September, but down 8 bus from 2018. Corn harvested area was forecast at 81,815,000 acres, down 202,000 acres from September but up slightly from 81,740,000 acres in 2018.
The average soybean yield was forecast at 46.9 bus an acre, down 1 bu from August and down 3.7 bus from 50.6 bus per acre last year, which was revised down from 51.6 bus per acre previously. Harvested area was forecast at 75,626,000 acres, down 240,000 acres from September and down 11,968,000 acres, or 14 percent, from 2018.
“Acreage updates were made in several states based on a thorough review of all available data,” the USDA said of the adjustments for both corn and soybeans.
If realized, corn production would be the lowest since 13,602 million bus in 2015 but still would be the sixth highest ever. Record-high production of 15,148 million bus was harvested in 2016. Soybean production would be the lowest since 3,357 million bus in 2013 with record high outturn of 4,428 million bus in 2018.
The USDA corn production and yield forecasts were above the average of trade expectations, while the soybean production and yield forecasts were below the trade averages.
Nearby Chicago corn futures were down about 12c a bu, but soybean futures were up about 3c a bu after the release of the report.
Despite the mostly minor changes from September to the USDA’s October corn and soybean production estimates, the trade remains concerned about potential crop losses to late maturing crops as wintry weather moves into the upper Midwest in the next few days.
Wheat production estimates were not updated in the October crop report because they were revised in the USDA’s Sept. 30 Small Grains 2019 Summary.