The Dec. 10 Washington Outlook from the National Chicken Council stated analysts explained the larger output this year reflects the higher slaughter levels during the fourth quarter and higher weights for broilers and hogs. Factors causing the board to boost its forecast production levels for 2011 are as follows: beef, higher expected placements of cattle during the fourth quarter this year and early 2011; pork, slightly higher slaughter rates continue to be evident; and broiler hatchery data indicate continued large egg sets and chick placements during the fourth quarter of 2010.
Broiler production for 2010 is now estimated to be 36.333 billion lbs., 113 million lbs. more than last month’s estimate and 3.4% above the 35.131 billion lbs. in 2009. For 2011, broiler production is forecasted at 36.802 billion lbs., 50 million lbs. more than the November forecast and 1.3% higher than the latest estimate for 2010.
Total poultry and meat production this year is now expected to be 91.319 billion lbs., 545 million lbs. more than the November estimate and 0.8% over the 90.631 lbs. produced in 2009. For 2011, combined meat production is likely to be 91.320 billion lbs., up 149 million lbs. from last month’s forecast and essentially unchanged compared with the latest estimate for 2010.
Broiler exports for 2010 were raised to 6.419 billion lbs., 73 million lbs. more than the November estimate and 5.9% below the 6.818 billion lbs. exported in 2009. USDA’s forecast for broiler exports for 2011 was left unchanged at 6.650 billion lbs., which would represent a 3.6% increase over the revised estimate for 2010.
Analysts expect this year’s 12-city average wholesale price for broilers to now be 83.1 cents per lb., off 0.3 cents per lb. from last month’s report and 7.1% higher than the comparable price of 77.6 cents per lb. in 2009. For 2011, the board forecast the broiler price to average between 81-88 cents per lb., down 2 cents at the lower end of the price range and down 1 cent at the high end of range when compared with last month.
Also, in today’s report, USDA essentially made no changes with respect to the supply-use data for corn and soybeans.