The reduction was the result of forecast lower beginning stocks, lower production and higher use of corn for food and ethanol production only partially offset by lower exports and lower feed and residual use. Corn production in 2019 was projected based on trendline analysis at 14,040 million bushels, down 3.9 percent from 14,604 million bushels in 2017 but still the fourth highest on record if realized.
The USDA initially projected US soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, at 415 million bushels, down 115 million bushels, or 22 percent, from 530 million bushels forecast for 2018. The decrease was the result of forecast lower production, higher crushings and higher exports only partially offset by larger beginning stocks. Trendline soybean production in 2018 was forecast at 4,280 million bushels, down 2.6 percent from record production of 4,392 million bushels in 2017 but still the third highest on record if realized.
Corn futures posted narrow, mostly lower changes and soybean futures edged higher after the report.