US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was projected at 2,182 million bushels, up 55 million bushels, or 2.6 percent, from March but down 111 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 2,293 million bushels estimated on Sept. 1, 2017. The USDA 2018 projection was slightly below the trade average forecast of 2,192 million bushels.
Increased corn carryover was attributed to lower feed and residual use and slightly lower food, seed and industrial use. Feed and residual use in 2017-18 was projected at 5,500 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 0.9 percent from March, but up 28 million bushels from 2016-17. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 7,040 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from March but up 157 million bushels, or 2.3 percent, from a year earlier. Use of corn for ethanol was unchanged from March at 5,575 million bushels.
Projected soybean carryover in the United States decreased from March due to increased projections for soybean crush offsetting lower seed and residual use. Higher soybean meal prices have been supported crush margins, the USDA said.
Soybean crushings in 2017-18 were forecast at a record 1,970 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 0.5 percent, from March and up 69 million bushels, or 4 percent, from 2016-17. Seed use was projected at 103 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from March and down 2 million bushels from 2016-17. Residual use was projected at 30 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from March and down 4 million bushels from 2016-17.
The USDA projected 2017-18 global ending stocks of corn at 197.78 million tonnes for 2017-18 compared with 199.17 million tonnes projected in March and 230.90 million tonnes in 2016-17.
World soybean ending stocks for 2017-18 were projected at 90.80 million tonnes compared with 94.40 million tonnes in March and 96.72 million tonnes in 2016-17.
World soybean production for 2017-18 was projected at 334.81 million tonnes compared with 340.86 million tonnes in March and 350.76 million tonnes in 2016-17, largely due to Argentine soybean production, which fell 7 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes from March and compared with 57.8 million tonnes in 2016-17. That was partially offset by a 2-million-tonne increase over March for projected Brazilian soybean production at a record 115 million tonnes.
Drought in Argentina has slashed soybean production severely. The world’s No. 3 soybean exporter and top supplier of soybean meal and soybean oil this week bought 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans, according to the USDA’s 24-hour reporting service. It was Argentina’s largest purchase of US soybeans since December 1997, according to trade reports.