USDA adjusts meat production forecast

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WASHINGTON – Forecasts for total meat production in the US in 2015 and 2016 have been lowered from last month, according to the US Dept. of Agriculture’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Sept. 12.

A combination of slower marketings of fed cattle and reduced cow slaughter led to lowered beef production forecasts. Pork production forecasts are unchanged.

Broiler production for 2015 were lowered from last month as growth in the number of eggs set and chicks placed slowed. Weaker forecast broiler prices are expected to limit production growth; however, no change was made to 2016 production. Turkey production was raised for 2015 based on hatchery data. Egg production for 2015 was lowered based on second quarter production but no change was made to the forecasts for the remainder of 2015 and 2016.

The relative strength of the dollar and expectations of weak demand of beef have led to beef export forecasts being lowered from last month. Beef imports, however, were raised on strength in demand for processing-grade beef. Pork and broiler imports and exports were adjusted to reflect June trade data. The turkey export forecast was reduced for 2015 and 2016 as supplies continue to be tight.

Weaker beef demand resulted in reduced cattle prices for 2015 and 2016, while large hog supplies have led to reduced hog prices for 2015. Broiler prices were lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on competition from relatively lower red meat prices. Tighter turkey supplies led to higher turkey prices for 2015. Egg prices for both 2015 and 2016 were raised from last month on tight supplies and prices to date.
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