US 2016 corn carryover seen down from 2015

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – In the first forecast for the 2015-16 marketing year, US total corn supply in 2015-16 was projected at a record 15.506 billion bushels, up 34 million bushels from 15.472 billion bushels in 2014-15, based on beginning stocks of 1.851 billion bushels (up 50 percent from 1.232 billion bushels in 2014-15), imports of 25 million bushels (unchanged) and 2015 production of 13.630 billion bushels, the US Department of Agriculture said in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Feed and residual use for 2015-16 was projected at 5.3 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 1 percent, from 5.25 billion bushels in 2014-15. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6.56 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from a downwardly revised 6.547 billion bushels 2014-15 (based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5.2 billion bushels, unchanged from 2014-15, and for food, seed and industrial at 1.36 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels). Total domestic use was projected at 11.86 billion bushels, up 63 million bushels from 11.797 billion bushels in 2014-15.

Corn exports were projected at 1.900 billion bushels in 2015-16, up 75 million bushels, or 4 percent, from and upwardly revised 1.825 billion bushels in 2014-15. Total use was projected at a record 13.76 billion bushels, up 138 million bushels, or 1 percent, from 13.622 billion bushels in the current year.

US soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 500 million bushels, up 150 million bushels, or 43 percent, from a downwardly revised 350 million bushels in 2015. The 2015-16 USDA soybean carryover number was well above the average trade expectation near 438 million bushels. The 2014-15 number was below the trade average of 363 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2015 US soybean production at 3.85 billion bushels, down 119 million bushels, or 3 percent, from a record 3.969 billion bushels in 2014, based on harvested area at 83.7 million acres, up 600,000 acres, or 1 percent, from 83.1 million acres in 2014, and yield at 46 bushels an acre, down 1.8 bushels, or 4 percent, from 47.8 bushels an acre last year. The average price of soybeans in 2015-16 was projected to range from $8.25 to $9.75 a bushel, compared with $10.05 a bushel this year and $13 a bushel in 2013-14.

US total soybean supply in 2015-16 was projected at 4.23 billion bushels, up 139 million bushels, or 3 percent, from 4.091 billion bushels in 2014-15, and based on beginning stocks of 350 million bushels, production of 3.85 billion bushels and imports of 30 million bushels.

Domestic soybean crush in 2015-16 was projected at 1.825 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 1 percent, from 1.805 billion bushels in 2014-15. Exports were projected at 1.775 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 1 percent, from an upwardly revised 1.8 billion bushels in 2014-15. Seed use was projected at 92 million bushels, down 6 million bushels, residual at 38 million bushels, unchanged, and total use at 3.729 billion bushels, down 12 million bushels from 3.741 billion bushels in 2014-15.
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