Corn crop forecast up 1% from August

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – US 2013 corn production was forecast at 13,843,320,000 bushels, up 80,295,000 bushels, or about 1 percent, from 13,763,025,000 bushels forecast in August and up 28 percent from 10,780,296,000 bushels in 2012, the US Department of Agriculture said in is Sept. 12 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 3,149,166,000 bushels, down 106,278,000 bushels, or about 3 percent, from 3,255,444,000 bushels forecast last month but up 4 percent from 3,014,998,000 bushels last year.

If realized, corn production would be record high and soybean production would be the fourth largest on record, the USDA said. Wheat production estimates will be updated in the USDA’s Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary.

The USDA corn number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 13,646 million bushels. The soybean number matched the pre-report average of about 3,149 million bushels.

New crop corn futures prices dropped about 10c a bushel immediately after the report was released at 11:00 a.m. Central Time, while soybean futures were mixed but mostly higher.

Based on Sept. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 155.3 bushels an acre, up 0.9 bushels from 154.4 bushels an acre forecast in August and up 31.9 bushels from 123.4 bushels an acre in 2012 and the highest average yield since 2009, the USDA said. Harvested area was forecast at 89,135,000 acres, unchanged from August but up 2 percent from 87,375,000 acres in 2012.

“The Sept. 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest number of ears on record for the combined 10 objective yield states,” the USDA said.

Soybean yield was forecast at 41.2 bushels an acre, down 1.4 bushels from 42.6 bushels an acre forecast in August but up 1.6 bushels from 39.6 bushels an acre in 2012. Harvested area was forecast at 76,378,000 acres, unchanged from August but up slightly from 76,104,000 acres in 2012.

“The September objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean producing states indicate a higher pod count compared with last year as conditions have generally been more favorable across the Midwest,” the USDA said.

US 2013 rice production was forecast at 185,077,000 cwts, up 2 percent from 181,364,000 cwts forecast in August but down 7 percent from 199,479,000 cwts in 2012.

Sorghum outturn in 2013 was forecast at 396,105,000 bushels, up 10 percent from 358,892,000 bushels forecast in August and up 60 percent from 246,932,000 bushels in 2012.
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