US 2014 corn carryover 164% over 2013

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – In the first forecast for the 2013-14 marketing year, US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 2,004 million bushels, up 1,245 million bushels, or 164 percent, from an upwardly revised 759 million bushels in 2013. The corn carryover was above the trade average that was near 1,973 million bushels, the US Department of Agriculture said in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The USDA projected 2013 US corn production at a record high 14,140 million bushels, up 31 percent from 10,780 million bushels in 2012 based on planted area of 97.3 million acres, up slightly from 2012, and harvested area of 89.5 million acres, up 2 percent, and yield of 158 bushels an acre, up 28 percent from 123.4 bushels. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.30-5.10 a bushel in 2013-14, down from $6.70-7.10 a bushel estimated for the current year and $6.22 a bushel in 2011-12.

US total corn supply in 2013-14 was projected at 14,924 million bushels, up 25 percent from 11,894 million bushels in 2012-13, based on beginning stocks of 759 million bushels, imports of 25 million bushels (down 100 million bushels from 2012-13) and record 2013 production of 14,140 million bushels.

Feed and residual use for 2013-14 was projected at 5,325 million bushels, up 925 million bushels, or 21 percent, from 4,400 million bushels in 2012-13. Food, seed and industrial use for next year was projected at 6,295 million bushels, up 310 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 5,985 million bushels 2012-13 (based on corn use for ethanol projected at 4,850 million bushels, up 250 million bushels, and for food, seed and industrial at 1,445 million bushels, up 60 million bushels). Total domestic use was projected at 11,620 million bushels, up 1,235 million bushels, or 12 percent, from 10,385 million bushels 2012-13.

Corn exports were projected at 1,300 million bushels in 2013-14, up 550 million bushels, or 73 percent from 750 million bushels in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 12,920 million bushels, up 1,785 million bushels, or 16 percent, from 11,135 million bushels in the current year.

US soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million bushels, or 112 percent, from 125 million bushels in 2013. The 2013-14 USDA soybean carryover number was above the average trade of expectation near 239 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2013 US soybean production at a record 3,390 million bushels, up 12 percent from 3,015 million bushels in 2012, planted area at 77.1 million acres, down slightly, and harvested area at 76.2 million acres, up slightly, and yield at 44.5 bushels an acre, up 12 percent from 39.6 bushels an acre. The average price of soybeans in 2013-14 was projected to range from $9.50-11.50 a bushel, compared with $14.30 this year and $12.50 in 2011-12.

US total soybean supply in 2013-14 was projected at 3,530 million bushels, up 326 million bushels, or 10 percent, from 3,204 million bushels in 2012-13, and based on beginning stocks of 125 million bushels, production of 3,390 million bushels and imports of 15 million bushels.

Domestic soybean crush in 2013-14 was projected at 1,695 million bushels, up 60 million bushels, or 4 percent, from 1,635 million bushels in 2012-13. Exports were projected at 1,450 million bushels, up 100 million bushels, or 7 percent from 1,350 million bushels in 2012-13. Seed use was projected at 87 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from the current year, residual at 33 million bushels, up 28 million bushels, and total use at 3,264 million bushels, up 184 million bushels, or 6 percent, from 3,080 million bushels in 2012-13.

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