US 2013 corn carryover up 5 percent from January

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 632 million bushels, up 30 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 602 million bushels in January but down 357 million bushels, or 36 percent, from 989 million bushels in 2012, the USDA said.

The USDA 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 615 million bushels. Corn futures traded slightly lower after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the USDA data.

Projected corn supply numbers for 2012-13 were unchanged from January. US corn production in 2012 was estimated at 10,780 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 13 percent from 12,360 million bushels in 2011.

US corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 100 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 71 million bushels from 29 million bushels in 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,869 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 1,647 million bushels, or 12 percent, from 13,516 million bushels in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,450 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 98 million bushels, or 2 percent, from 4,548 million bushels in 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,887 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from January (including corn for ethanol unchanged at 4,500 million bushels and food and seed use up 20 million bushels at 1,387 million bushels), but down 550 million bushels, or 9 percent, from 6,437 million bushels in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bushels for ethanol and 1,426 million bushels for food and seed).

“Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels, boosting projected food, seed and industrial use,” the USDA said.

US corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 900 million bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 950 million bushels in January and down 643 million bushels, or 42 percent, from 1,543 million bushels in 2011-12.

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11,237 million bushels, down 30 million bushels from the January forecast and down 1,290 million bushels, or 10 percent, from 12,527 million bushels in 2011-12.
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.75-7.65 a bushel in 2012-13, compared with $6.80-8 projected in January.

Carryover of US soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from 135 million bushels in January and down 44 million bushels, or 26 percent, from 169 million bushels in 2012.

The USDA 2013 soybean carryover was below the average trade expectation that was near 129 million bushels. Soybean futures prices were lower after the report.

US soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 79 million bushels, or 3 percent, from 3,094 million bushels in 2011.

Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from January at 20 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from 2011-12.

Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,204 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 121 million bushels, or 4 percent, from 3,325 million bushels in 2011-12.

Projected 2012-13 US soybean crush was forecast at 1,615 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 1,605 million bushels in January but still down 88 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 1,703 million bushels crushed in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,345 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 17 million bushels, or 1 percent, from 1,362 million bushels in 2011-12.

Total use was projected at 3,080 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 3,070 million bushels in January but down 75 million bushels, or 2 percent, from 3,155 million bushels as the estimated use in 2011-12.

The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.55-15.05 a bushel, up 5 cents from $13.50-15 a bushel projected in January.

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