2013 broiler forecast reduced: USDA

by Meat&Poultry Staff
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US Department of Agriculture analysts are anticipating that expected “higher feed prices” will pressure net margins for all red meat and poultry production. As a result, broiler production for next year is forecast to be lower than its forecast last month. Specifically, broiler production next year is forecast to be 36.109 billion lbs., 594 million lbs. less than its forecast last month and 1.3 percent under the 36.571 billion lbs. now forecast for 2012, according to the department’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Broiler exports for next year were also reduced with the outlook now for 6.950 billion lbs., 175 million lbs. less than last month’s forecast and 1.8 percent below the 7.078 billion lbs. now forecast for 2012. If this year’s broiler exports are 7.078 billion lbs., it would be 1.5 percent above the 6.971 billion lbs. exported in 2011.

The Supply and Demand Estimates report has the wholesale, 12-city average broiler price for 2013 being between 84-90 cents per lb., little changed from last month’s forecast of 83-90 cents per lb. For 2012 USDA lowered the comparable price range from 84-86 cents per lb. to this month’s estimate of 82-84 cents per lb.

For beef production when compared with last month’s report the Board slightly increased its outlook this month to 24.671 billion lbs., but down 3.9 percent from the 25.679 billion lbs. now seen for this year. Pork production was also reduced for next year with 22.962 billion lbs. likely or 1.2 percent under the 23.249 billion lbs. expected this year.

For total combined red meat and poultry production, the Board forecasts 90.253 billion lbs., 1.450 billion lbs. less than last month’s forecast and 2.1 percent less than the 92.194 billion lbs. now seen for 2012.

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