Winter wheat down 1% from June, corn yield slashed

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2012 winter wheat production was forecast at 1,670,346,000 bus, down 13,321,000 bus, or 1%, from 1,683,667,000 bus forecast in June but up 176,669,000 bus, or 12%, from 1,493,677,000 bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its July Crop Production report this morning. In its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the U.S.D.A. slashed its projected 2012 corn yield by 20 bus an acre from its June forecast “reflecting the rapid decline in crop conditions since early June and the latest weather data.”

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2012 production of spring wheat other than durum at 471,769,000 bus, up 4% from 455,188,000 bus in 2011. Durum output was forecast at 81,960,000 bus, up 62% from 50,482,000 bus last year. It was the first survey based forecast of spring wheat and durum production for the season.

All wheat production in 2012 was forecast at 2,224,075,000 bus, up 224,728,000 bus, or 11%, from 1,999,347,000 bus in 2011.

The projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was forecast at 664 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 4%, from its June forecast and down 79 million bus, or 11%, from a revised 743 million bus in 2012.

In its WASDE, the U.S.D.A. projected the carryover of corn in the United States on Sept. 1, 2013, at 1,183 million bus, down 698 million bus, or 37%, from 1,881 million bus projected in June, but up 280 million bus, or 31%, from 903 million bus forecast for the current year.

Although not survey based, the U.S.D.A. projected 2012 corn production at 12,970 million bus, down 1,820 million bus, or 12%, from 14,790 million bus projected in June. The production forecast was based on projected harvested area of 88.9 million acres, down 200,000 acres from the June projection, and average yield of 146 bus an acre, down 20 bus from 166 bus an acre in June.

The U.S.D.A. projected soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, at 130 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 7%, from 140 million bus projected in June and down 40 million bus, or 24%, from 170 million bus forecast for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 carryover numbers for wheat, corn and soybeans were below the average of trade expectations. The 2012 winter wheat estimate was near the trade forecast while the all wheat number also was below trade expectations.

Wheat, corn and soybean futures traded sharply higher after the release of the report.

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