US 2013 corn carryover unchanged from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 1,881 million bushels, unchanged from the initial May projection but up 1,030 million bushels, or 121 percent, from an unchanged 851 million bushels in 2012.

The USDA 2011-12 and 2012-13 US corn carryover projections both were above average trade expectations.

All 2012-13 projections were unchanged from May. The USDA projected 2012 US corn production at a record high 14,790 million bushels, up 20 percent from 2011 based on planted area of 95.9 million acres and harvested area of 89.1 million acres, up 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, and yield of 166 bushels an acre, up 13 percent from 147.2 bushels in 2011. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.20-$5 a bushel in 2012-13, down from $5.95-$6.25 a bushel forecast for 2011-12 and $5.18 a bushel in 2010-11.

US total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 15,656 million bushels, up 16 percent from 13,506 million bushels in 2011-12, based on beginning stocks of 851 million bushels, imports of 15 million bushels (down 5 million bushels from 2011-12) and record 2012 production of 14,790 million bushels.

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 5,450 million bushels, up 900 million bushels, or 20 percent, from 4,550 million bushels in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,425 million bushels, down 30 million bushels from 6,455 million bushels 2011-12, based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5,000 million bushels, down 50 million bushels from an upwardly revised 5,050 million bushels for 2011-12, and food, seed and industrial at 1,425 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from the current year. Total domestic use was projected at 11,875 million bushels in 2012-13, up 870 million bushels from an upwardly revised 11,005 million bushels in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,900 million bushels in 2012-13, up 250 million bushels, or 15 percent, from a downwardly revised 1,650 million bushels in 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 13,775 million bushels, up 1,120 million bushels, or 9 percent, from 12,655 million bushels in 2011-12.

World corn ending stocks in 2012-13 were projected at 155.74 million tonnes, up from 152.34 million tonnes projected in May and up 26.55 million tonnes, or 21 percent, from 129.19 million tonnes in 2011-12.

US soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from the May projection and down 35 million bushels, or 20 percent, from a downwardly revised 175 million bushels in 2012.

The 2012 and 2013 USDA soybean carryover numbers were below the average trade of expectations for both years.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 58.54 million tonnes in 2012-13, up from 58.07 million tonnes for 2012-13, and up 5.18 million tonnes, or 10 percent, from 53.36 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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