USDA projects record-high corn production

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 1,881 million bushels, up 1,030 million bushels, or 121 percent, from an upwardly revised 851 million bushels in 2012, the US Department of Agriculture said in the May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The USDA 2012-13 US corn carryover projection was above the trade average that was near 1,704 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2012 US corn production at a record high 14,790 million bushels, up 20 percent from 2011 based on planted area of 95.9 million acres and harvested area of 89.1 million acres, up 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, and yield of 166 bushels an acre, up 13 percent from 147.2 bushels in 2011. The average price of corn was projected to range from $4.20-$5 a bushel in 2012-13, down from $5.95-$6.25 a bushel forecast for the current year and $5.18 a bushel in 2010-11.

US total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 15,656 million bushels, up 16 percent from 13,506 million bushels in 2011-12, based on beginning stocks of 851 million bushels, imports of 15 million bushels (down 5 million bushels from 2011-12) and record 2012 production of 14,790 million bushels.

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 5,450 million bushels, up 900 million bushels, or 20 percent, from a downwardly revised 4,550 million bushels in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use for 2013 was projected at 6,425 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 6,405 million bushels in 2011-12, based on corn use for ethanol projected at 5,000 million bushels, unchanged from 2011-12, and food, seed and industrial at 1,425 million bushels, up 20 million bus from the current year. Total domestic use was projected at 11,875 million bushels in 2012-13, up 920 million bushels from a downwardly revised 10,955 million bushels in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,900 million bushels in 2012-13, up 200 million bushels, or 12 percent, from 1,700 million bushels in 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 13,775 million bushels, up 1,120 million bushels, or 9 percent, from 12,655 million bushels in the current year, with the latter revised down 50 million bushels from April.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 152.34 million tonnes for 2012-13, up 24.78 million tonnes, or 19 percent, from 127.56 million tonnes in 2011-12.

US soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million bushels, or 31 percent, from a downwardly revised 210 million bushels in 2012.

The 2012-13 USDA soybean carryover number was below the average trade of expectation near 170 million bushels.

The USDA projected 2012 US soybean production at 3,205 million bushels, up 5 percent from 3,056 million bushels in 2011, planted area at 73.9 million acres and harvested area at 73 million acres, both down 1 percent, and yield at 43.9 bushels an acre, up 6 percent from 41.5 bushels an acre in 2011. The average price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $12-$14 a bushel, compared with $12.35 in 2012 and $11.30 in 2010-11.

US total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,430 million bushels, up 144 million bushels, or 4 percent, from an unchanged-from-April 3,286 million bushels in 2011-12, and based on beginning stocks of 210 million bushels, production of 3,205 million bushels and imports of 15 million bushels.

Domestic soybean crush in 2012-13 was projected at 1,655 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from 1,645 million bushels in 2011-12, with the latter revised up 15 million bushels from 1,630 million bushels forecast in April. Exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,505 million bushels, up 190 million bushels, or 14 percent, from 1,315 million bushels in 2011-12, with the latter revised up 25 million bushels from April. Seed use in 2012-13 was projected at 89 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from the current year, residual at 30 million bushels, up 6 million bushels, and total use at 3,285 million bushels, up 209 million bushels from 3,076 million bushels in 2011-12, with the latter revised up 40 million bushels from April.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 58.07 million tonnes for 2012-13, up 4.83 million tonnes, or 9 percent, from 53.24 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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