ERS predicts record feed-grain production
May 14, 2012
WASHINGTON – For 2012/13, US feed grain production is projected to total 390 million metric tons – up from 324 million in 2011/12, according to the most recent feed outlook study from the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. Boosting this production outlook is an anticipated large corn crop augmented by recovering production for sorghum, barley and oats. For the four feed grains, acreage is projected higher and yields are projected up for all but barley.
The US planted area for the four feed grains combined is up 5.6 million acres. Harvested area is projected at 98.3 million acres, up from 91.1 million from last season. Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 24.2 million tons in 2012/13, the lowest since 1996/97. Total 2012/13 feed grain supply is projected at a record high 416 million tons.
Due to higher feed and residual use and exports, total US feed grain use is expected to increase by 30.9 million tons to 365 million tons in 2012/13. Year-to-year feed and residual use is projected to increase 23 million tons, and exports are projected to reach 7 million tons higher.
Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is up a little. No change was made in feed grains used for fuel. Ethanol production is steady as the slowly increasing share of ethanol in gasoline is offset by stagnant gasoline consumption.
Increasing US poultry and hog inventories and lower prices are expected to boost demand for feed. The residual component of feed and residual is expected to be much larger in 2012/13 as production expands significantly.
Year-to-year from 2011/12, ending feed grain stocks are projected to advance 27 million tons. In 2012/13, average farm price is predicted to drop 24 percent from the 2011/12 record high levels as supplies grow.
The 2012/13 feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat on a September-August year is projected at 149.3 million metric tons, up approximately 21.7 million tons from 2011/12.
Total grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) are projected at less than 1 percent lower year-to-year at 92.9 million. Due to the increased forecast production of broilers and hogs, GCAUs are expected to be higher.