US 2012 corn carryover unchanged from February

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bushels, unchanged from the February forecast but down 327 million bushels, or 29 percent, from 1,128 million bushels in 2011. The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate of 784 million bushels, the US Department of Agriculture said in its March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Carryover of US soybeans on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 275 million bushels, also unchanged from February but up 60 million bushels, or 28 percent, from 215 million bushels in 2011. The USDA soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 257 million bushels.

Except for a narrowing of the projected 2011-12 average price, all US corn supply and demand data were unchanged from February. US corn production in 2011 was estimated at 12,358 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 89 million bushels, or 1 percent, from 12,447 million bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,506 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 676 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 14,182 million bushels in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,405 million bushels in 2011-12, unchanged from February (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bushels and food and seed use at 1,405 million bushels), but down 23 million bushels from 6,428 million bushels in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 193 million bushels, or 4 percent, from 4,793 million bushels 2010-11.

US corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,700 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 135 million bushels, or 7 percent, from 1,835 million bushels a year ago.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.90-6.50 a bushel, compared with $5.80-6.60 a bushel in February, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

US soybean data for 2011-12 were mostly unchanged from February. The projected average price was increased. US 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3,056 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 273 million bushels, or 8 percent, from 3,329 million bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,286 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 209 million bushels, or 6 percent, from 3,495 million bushels in 2010-11.

US soybean crushings in 2011-12 were projected at 1,615 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 33 million bushels, or 2 percent, from 1,648 million bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,275 million bushels, unchanged from February but down 226 million bushels, or 15 percent, from 1,501 million bushels in 2010-11. Residual was raised 2 million bushels from February, to 34 million bushels, and seed use was lowered 1 million bushels, to 87 million bushels, but due to rounding, total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was unchanged from February at 3,011 million bushels, down 269 million bushels, or 8 percent, from 3,280 million bushels in 2010-11.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.40-12.60 a bushel in 2011-12, compared with $11.10-12.30 a bushels projected in February, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

US wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 825 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 2 percent, from 845 million bushels forecast in February and down 37 million bushels, or 4 percent, from 862 million bushels in 2011. The decrease was the result of a 5 million bushel decrease in projected 2011-12 food use of wheat more than offset by a 25 million bushel increase projected exports.

The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 838 million bushels.

Exports of US wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1,000 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, or 3 percent, from 975 million bushels in February but down 289 million bushels, or 22 percent, from 1,289 million bushels in 2010-11.

The USDA projected domestic food use of US wheat in 2011-12 at 930 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from February but up 4 million bushels from 2010-11. Seed use unchanged from February at 82 million bushels, up 11 million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 13 million bushels, or 10 percent, from 132 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,157 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2,137 million bushels February but down 260 million bushels, or 11 percent, from 2,417 million bushels in 2010-11.

“Projected food use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association,” the USDA said.

The average farm price of US wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.15-7.45 a bushel, unchanged from February and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, export projections were increased from February by 10 million bushels each for hard red spring and white wheat and by 5 million bushels for durum.

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