US corn carryover down 5 percent from January

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bushels, down 45 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 846 million bushels in January and down 327 million bushels, or 29 percent, from 1,128 million bushels in 2011. The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was slightly above the average trade estimate near 797 million bushels.

Carryover of US soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bushels, unchanged from January and up 60 million bushels, or 28 percent, from 215 million bushels in 2011. The USDA soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 269 million bushels.

US corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,358 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 89 million bushels, or 1 percent, from 12,447 million bushels in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from January but down 8 million bushels from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,506 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from January but down 676 million bushels, or 5 percent, from 14,182 million bushels in 2010-11.

US corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,700 million bushels, up 50 million bushels, or 3 percent, from January but down 135 million bushels, or 7 percent, from 1,835 million bushels the previous year.
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.80 to 6.60 a bushel, compared with $5.70 to 6.70 a bushel in January, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

All 2011-12 US soybean projections were unchanged from January. US 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3,056 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 273 million bushels, or 8 percent, from 3,329 million bushels in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bushels, unchanged from January but up 1 million bushels from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,286 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 209 million bushels, or 6 percent, from 3,495 million bushels in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,011 million bushels, unchanged from January but down 269 million bushels, or 8 percent, from 3,280 million bushels in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,615 million bushels, unchanged from January and down 33 million bushels, or 2 percent, from 1,648 million bushels in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,275 million bushels, unchanged from January and down 226 million bushels, or 15 percent, from 1,501 million bushels in 2010-11. Residual was unchanged from January at 32 million bushels, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bushels.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.10 to 12.30 a bushel in 2011-12, compared with $10.95 to 12.45 a bushels in January, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

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