USDA lowers corn carryover forecast

by Ron Sterk
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The USDA forecast US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018 at 2, 352 million bus and US soybean carryover at 530 million bus.
 
WASHINGTON – The US Dept. of Agriculture, in its Feb. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast US corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, at 2,352 million bushels, down 125 million bushels, or 5 percent, from its January forecast but up 59 million bushels, or 2.6 percent, from 2,293 million bushels in 2017. The change was based on a 125-million-bushel increase in 2017-18 US corn exports, forecast at 2,050 million bushels, “reflecting US price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina and Ukraine,” the USDA said.

All other 2017-18 corn supply and use forecasts were unchanged from January. The average price of corn paid to farmers was forecast at $3.05 to $3.55 a bushel, compared with $2.95 to $3.55 a bushel forecast in January and $3.36 a bushel in 2016-17.

The USDA forecast US soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, at 530 million bushels, up 60 million bushels, or 13 percent, from its January forecast and up 228 million bushels, or 75 percent, from 302 million bushels in 2017. The change was based on a 60-million-bushel decrease in 2017-18 soybean exports, forecast at 2,100 million bushels, based on shipments and sales through January and increased competition from Brazil, the USDA said.

All other 2017-18 soybean supply and use forecasts were unchanged from January. The average price of soybeans paid to farmers was forecast at $8.90 to $9.70 a bushel, compared with $8.80 to $9.80 a bushel forecast in January and $9.47 a bushel in 2016-17.

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