USDA lowers 2017 meat production forecast

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Beef and pork production are expected to be lower.
WASHINGTON – The US Dept. of Agriculture in its June 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected global meat production at 100,435 million lbs., down from the May projection of 100,735 million lbs.

The forecast for beef production was lowered to 26,225 million lbs., down from 26,310 million lbs. projected in May. “Beef production for 2017 is lowered primarily on lighter carcass weights which more than offsets higher expected slaughter in the later part of 2017,” USDA said. “Higher expected placements support a higher 2018 beef forecast.”

Pork production is forecast to drop to 25,894 million lbs., down from 26,054 million lbs. forecast in May. The current pace of second-quarter hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights contributed to the lower forecast, USDA said.

The forecast for cattle prices in 2017 was raised to $122-$126 per cwt from $120-$125 per cwt for cattle, while prices for hogs were forecast higher at $46-$48 per cwt from $44-$46 per cwt forecast in May, according to USDA. The agency is projecting higher prices for cattle and hogs on price strength to date and continued price strength in the third quarter. Cattle prices are unchanged for 2018, while hog prices are forecast to rise on strong packer demand.

USDA lowered its broiler production forecast for 2017 to 41,458 million lbs. from 41,482 million lbs. based on the pace of second quarter slaughter. However, the forecast is unchanged for the remaining quarters in 2017 and the 2018 forecast.

Turkey production is forecast lower at 6,092 million lbs. from 6,122 million lbs. on the current pace of slaughter, and weak demand in the third quarter that is expected to hinder the rate of expansion.

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