USDA raises 2017 soybean carryover 2% from March

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON – The US Dept. of Agriculture in its April 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its forecast for 2017 US soybean carryover by 2 percent from March but left corn carryover unchanged.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2017, was forecast at 445 million bushels, up 10 million, or 2 percent, from 435 million bushels forecast in March and up 126 percent from 197 million bushels in 2016. The USDA forecast was slightly below the average trade expectation of 447 million bushels.

The increase in carryover was the result of a 9-million-bushel increase in seed use more than offset by a 19-million-bushel decrease in residual use.

“Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, and residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report,” the USDA said.

Total soybean supply in 2016-17 was forecast at 4,528 million bushels, crushings at 1,940 million bushels and exports at 2,025 million bushels, all unchanged from March. Use of soybeans for seed was forecast at 104 million bushels, up 9 million from March, and residual use was forecast at 14 million bushels, down 19 million. The average price of soybeans paid to farmers was forecast at $9.40 to $9.70 a bushel, compared with $9.30 to $9.90 a bushel in March and $8.95 a bushel in 2015-16.

Globally, 2016-17 soybean production was forecast at 345.97 million tonnes, up 5.18 million tonnes from the March forecast and up 32.95 million tonnes, or 11 percent, from 313.02 million tonnes last year. The increase was in part the result of forecast higher production in Brazil at a record 111 million tonnes, along with increases in Argentina, Paraguay and Mexico. Global soybean ending stocks were forecast at 87.41 million tonnes, up 4.59 million, or 6 percent, from March and up 10.28 million, or 13 percent, from 2015-16.

Brazil’s agricultural statistics agency, CONAB, on April 11 raised its forecast of 2016-17 soybean production in Brazil to 110.2 million tonnes. It was the fourth forecast increase from CONAB this year. The current soybean harvest was nearing completion in Brazil.

The carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2017, was forecast at 2,320 million bushels, unchanged from March but up 583 million bushels, or 34 percent, from 1,737 million bushels in 2016 as a 50-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual use of corn was offset by a like increase in corn used for ethanol. The USDA forecast was below the average but within the full range of trade expectations.

“The pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data has been above expectations,” the USDA said, noting also that corn used to produce ethanol during the December-February period was record high.

The forecast total supply of corn in 2016-17 was unchanged from March at 16,940 million bushels. Feed and residual use of corn was forecast at 5,500 million bushels, down 50 million from March. The use of corn to make ethanol was forecast at 5,450 million bushels, up 50 million from March. Food, seed and industrial use (excluding ethanol) was unchanged from March at 1,445 million bushels, and exports were unchanged at 2,225 million bushels. The average price of corn paid to farmers this year was forecast at $3.25 to $3.55 a bushel, compared with $3.20 to $3.60 a bushel forecast in March and $3.61 a bushel last year.

Global corn ending stocks were forecast at 222.98 million tonnes, up 2.3 million from March and up 11.15 million, or 5 percent, from 2015-16 as higher beginning stocks and production more than offset higher domestic use and exports.

 

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